INT vs MON
Inter Milan (home) vs Monza · model confidence 72%
Match Outcome
INT win 74.4% fair 1.34
Draw 14.6% fair 6.84
MON win 11.0% fair 9.12
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 80.8% / 12.2% / 7.0%.
Expected Goals
INT
2.93
—
0.78
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.7% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.3% | fair 3.53 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-0 MON | 10.5% | |
| INT 3-0 MON | 10.3% | |
| INT 2-1 MON | 8.2% | |
| INT 3-1 MON | 8.0% | |
| INT 4-0 MON | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).