INT vs MON
Inter Milan (home) vs Monza · model confidence 71% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 4-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
INT win 72.6% fair 1.38
Draw 15.6% fair 6.40
MON win 11.7% fair 8.53
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 79.0% / 13.3% / 7.8%.
Expected Goals
INT
2.77
—
0.77
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.2% | fair 3.20 |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-0 MON | 11.1% | |
| INT 3-0 MON | 10.2% | |
| INT 2-1 MON | 8.6% | |
| INT 1-0 MON | 8.0% | |
| INT 3-1 MON | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).