INT vs NAP
Inter Milan (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 3-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
INT win 53.0% fair 1.89
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
NAP win 24.0% fair 4.16
Expected Goals
INT
1.87
—
1.15
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 1-1 NAP | 10.5% | |
| INT 2-1 NAP | 9.8% | |
| INT 1-0 NAP | 9.1% | |
| INT 2-0 NAP | 8.5% | |
| INT 3-1 NAP | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).