INT vs PAR
Inter Milan (home) vs Parma · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 3-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
INT win 71.9% fair 1.39
Draw 16.7% fair 6.00
PAR win 11.4% fair 8.76
Expected Goals
INT
2.49
—
0.75
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-0 PAR | 12.2% | |
| INT 3-0 PAR | 10.1% | |
| INT 1-0 PAR | 9.8% | |
| INT 2-1 PAR | 9.1% | |
| INT 3-1 PAR | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).