INT vs UDI
Inter Milan (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-14 · FT 5-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
INT win 67.1% fair 1.49
Draw 18.0% fair 5.55
UDI win 14.9% fair 6.70
Expected Goals
INT
2.48
—
0.98
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | fair 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 2-0 UDI | 9.7% | |
| INT 2-1 UDI | 9.5% | |
| INT 3-0 UDI | 8.0% | |
| INT 1-0 UDI | 7.9% | |
| INT 3-1 UDI | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).