INT vs VEN
Inter Milan (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
INT win 79.3% fair 1.26
Draw 12.0% fair 8.31
VEN win 8.6% fair 11.60
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 85.2% / 9.7% / 5.1%.
Expected Goals
INT
3.28
—
0.75
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.6% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.4% | fair 4.28 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| INT 3-0 VEN | 10.5% | |
| INT 2-0 VEN | 9.6% | |
| INT 4-0 VEN | 8.6% | |
| INT 3-1 VEN | 7.8% | |
| INT 2-1 VEN | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 11.0 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: INT goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).