JUV vs ATA
Juventus (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 2-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
JUV win 51.9% fair 1.93
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
ATA win 23.7% fair 4.23
Expected Goals
JUV
1.69
—
1.02
ATA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): JUV ×1.100 (matched 10), ATA ×0.900 (matched 8). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 ATA | 11.5% | |
| JUV 1-0 ATA | 11.3% | |
| JUV 2-1 ATA | 9.7% | |
| JUV 2-0 ATA | 9.5% | |
| JUV 0-1 ATA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).