JUV vs ATA
Juventus (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
JUV win 45.4% fair 2.20
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
ATA win 28.9% fair 3.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.9% / 25.5% / 28.6%.
Expected Goals
JUV
1.52
—
1.14
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 ATA | 12.1% | |
| JUV 1-0 ATA | 10.6% | |
| JUV 2-1 ATA | 9.2% | |
| JUV 2-0 ATA | 8.1% | |
| JUV 0-1 ATA | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).