JUV vs BOL
Juventus (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 50.0% fair 2.00
Draw 25.0% fair 3.99
BOL win 24.9% fair 4.01
Expected Goals
JUV
1.62
—
1.03
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 BOL | 11.8% | |
| JUV 1-0 BOL | 11.4% | |
| JUV 2-1 BOL | 9.5% | |
| JUV 2-0 BOL | 9.2% | |
| JUV 0-1 BOL | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).