JUV vs CAG
Juventus (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 57.0% fair 1.76
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
CAG win 19.4% fair 5.14
Expected Goals
JUV
1.77
—
0.86
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-0 CAG | 12.7% | |
| JUV 2-0 CAG | 11.2% | |
| JUV 1-1 CAG | 11.0% | |
| JUV 2-1 CAG | 9.7% | |
| JUV 0-0 CAG | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).