JUV vs FIO
Juventus (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 60.9% fair 1.64
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
FIO win 17.8% fair 5.62
Expected Goals
JUV
2.03
—
0.92
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.4% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 2-0 FIO | 10.8% | |
| JUV 1-0 FIO | 10.6% | |
| JUV 2-1 FIO | 9.9% | |
| JUV 1-1 FIO | 9.8% | |
| JUV 3-0 FIO | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).