JUV vs FRO
Juventus (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 60.4% fair 1.66
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
FRO win 18.3% fair 5.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.5% / 20.3% / 16.2%.
Expected Goals
JUV
2.07
—
0.94
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 2-0 FRO | 10.6% | |
| JUV 1-0 FRO | 10.3% | |
| JUV 2-1 FRO | 9.9% | |
| JUV 1-1 FRO | 9.6% | |
| JUV 3-0 FRO | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).