JUV vs GEN
Juventus (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 59.6% fair 1.68
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
GEN win 18.1% fair 5.54
Expected Goals
JUV
1.89
—
0.86
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-0 GEN | 12.0% | |
| JUV 2-0 GEN | 11.4% | |
| JUV 1-1 GEN | 10.4% | |
| JUV 2-1 GEN | 9.8% | |
| JUV 3-0 GEN | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).