JUV vs LAZ
Juventus (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 0-3 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
JUV win 49.6% fair 2.01
Draw 24.5% fair 4.07
LAZ win 25.8% fair 3.87
Expected Goals
JUV
1.67
—
1.11
LAZ
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): JUV ×1.100 (matched 10), LAZ ×1.095 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 LAZ | 11.5% | |
| JUV 1-0 LAZ | 10.4% | |
| JUV 2-1 LAZ | 9.6% | |
| JUV 2-0 LAZ | 8.7% | |
| JUV 0-1 LAZ | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).