JUV vs LAZ
Juventus (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
JUV win 50.2% fair 1.99
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
LAZ win 24.2% fair 4.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.3% / 25.4% / 23.3%.
Expected Goals
JUV
1.56
—
0.96
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-0 LAZ | 12.6% | |
| JUV 1-1 LAZ | 12.1% | |
| JUV 2-0 LAZ | 9.8% | |
| JUV 2-1 LAZ | 9.4% | |
| JUV 0-0 LAZ | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).