JUV vs LEC
Juventus (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 61.2% fair 1.63
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
LEC win 16.7% fair 6.00
Expected Goals
JUV
1.90
—
0.79
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-0 LEC | 12.9% | |
| JUV 2-0 LEC | 12.2% | |
| JUV 1-1 LEC | 10.2% | |
| JUV 2-1 LEC | 9.7% | |
| JUV 3-0 LEC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).