JUV vs MIL
Juventus (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
JUV win 43.6% fair 2.29
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
MIL win 30.4% fair 3.28
Expected Goals
JUV
1.47
—
1.18
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 MIL | 12.3% | |
| JUV 1-0 MIL | 10.4% | |
| JUV 2-1 MIL | 9.0% | |
| JUV 0-1 MIL | 8.4% | |
| JUV 2-0 MIL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).