JUV vs MIL
Juventus (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-06 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.95
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
JUV win 48.2% fair 2.08
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
MIL win 26.7% fair 3.75
Expected Goals
JUV
1.60
—
1.10
MIL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): JUV ×1.100 (matched 11), MIL ×0.949 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 MIL | 11.9% | |
| JUV 1-0 MIL | 10.8% | |
| JUV 2-1 MIL | 9.5% | |
| JUV 2-0 MIL | 8.6% | |
| JUV 0-1 MIL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).