JUV vs MON
Juventus (home) vs Monza · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 63.2% fair 1.58
Draw 19.9% fair 5.02
MON win 16.9% fair 5.92
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.6% / 18.8% / 14.6%.
Expected Goals
JUV
2.24
—
0.95
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 2-0 MON | 10.3% | |
| JUV 2-1 MON | 9.8% | |
| JUV 1-0 MON | 9.2% | |
| JUV 1-1 MON | 8.7% | |
| JUV 3-0 MON | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).