JUV vs MON
Juventus (home) vs Monza · model confidence 70%
Match Outcome
JUV win 63.1% fair 1.59
Draw 20.6% fair 4.87
MON win 16.4% fair 6.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.7% / 19.1% / 13.2%.
Expected Goals
JUV
2.14
—
0.82
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 2-0 MON | 11.9% | |
| JUV 1-0 MON | 11.1% | |
| JUV 2-1 MON | 9.7% | |
| JUV 1-1 MON | 9.1% | |
| JUV 3-0 MON | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).