JUV vs NAP
Juventus (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 40.7% fair 2.46
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
NAP win 33.3% fair 3.00
Expected Goals
JUV
1.41
—
1.26
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 NAP | 12.3% | |
| JUV 1-0 NAP | 9.8% | |
| JUV 0-1 NAP | 8.8% | |
| JUV 2-1 NAP | 8.7% | |
| JUV 1-2 NAP | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).