JUV vs NAP
Juventus (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
JUV win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 26.3% fair 3.81
NAP win 33.7% fair 2.96
Expected Goals
JUV
1.37
—
1.25
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 NAP | 12.4% | |
| JUV 1-0 NAP | 9.9% | |
| JUV 0-1 NAP | 9.1% | |
| JUV 2-1 NAP | 8.6% | |
| JUV 1-2 NAP | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).