JUV vs PAR
Juventus (home) vs Parma · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
JUV win 57.5% fair 1.74
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
PAR win 18.3% fair 5.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.8% / 23.9% / 16.3%.
Expected Goals
JUV
1.68
—
0.75
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-0 PAR | 14.8% | |
| JUV 2-0 PAR | 12.5% | |
| JUV 1-1 PAR | 11.1% | |
| JUV 2-1 PAR | 9.3% | |
| JUV 0-0 PAR | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).