JUV vs ROM
Juventus (home) vs Roma · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 34.7% fair 2.88
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
ROM win 39.4% fair 2.54
Expected Goals
JUV
1.28
—
1.41
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 ROM | 12.2% | |
| JUV 0-1 ROM | 9.6% | |
| JUV 1-0 ROM | 8.7% | |
| JUV 1-2 ROM | 8.7% | |
| JUV 2-1 ROM | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).