JUV vs SAS
Juventus (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 56.7% fair 1.76
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
SAS win 21.1% fair 4.75
Expected Goals
JUV
1.96
—
1.05
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 SAS | 10.2% | |
| JUV 2-1 SAS | 9.9% | |
| JUV 1-0 SAS | 9.7% | |
| JUV 2-0 SAS | 9.5% | |
| JUV 3-1 SAS | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).