JUV vs UDI
Juventus (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 58.9% fair 1.70
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
UDI win 19.3% fair 5.19
Expected Goals
JUV
1.99
—
0.98
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-0 UDI | 10.3% | |
| JUV 2-0 UDI | 10.2% | |
| JUV 1-1 UDI | 10.0% | |
| JUV 2-1 UDI | 10.0% | |
| JUV 3-0 UDI | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).