JUV vs UDI
Juventus (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
JUV win 53.0% fair 1.89
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
UDI win 22.9% fair 4.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.7% / 23.6% / 21.7%.
Expected Goals
JUV
1.74
—
1.00
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 UDI | 11.2% | |
| JUV 1-0 UDI | 11.2% | |
| JUV 2-1 UDI | 9.8% | |
| JUV 2-0 UDI | 9.8% | |
| JUV 0-1 UDI | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).