JUV vs VEN
Juventus (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
JUV win 63.2% fair 1.58
Draw 20.8% fair 4.81
VEN win 16.0% fair 6.26
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.0% / 19.4% / 12.6%.
Expected Goals
JUV
2.09
—
0.77
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 2-0 VEN | 12.5% | |
| JUV 1-0 VEN | 12.0% | |
| JUV 2-1 VEN | 9.6% | |
| JUV 1-1 VEN | 9.2% | |
| JUV 3-0 VEN | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).