JUV vs VEN
Juventus (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
JUV win 65.7% fair 1.52
Draw 19.6% fair 5.09
VEN win 14.6% fair 6.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.8% / 18.4% / 11.8%.
Expected Goals
JUV
2.19
—
0.77
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 2-0 VEN | 12.4% | |
| JUV 1-0 VEN | 11.3% | |
| JUV 2-1 VEN | 9.6% | |
| JUV 3-0 VEN | 9.0% | |
| JUV 1-1 VEN | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).