LAZ vs ATA
Lazio (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
LAZ win 36.6% fair 2.73
Draw 27.1% fair 3.69
ATA win 36.2% fair 2.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.9% / 27.1% / 37.0%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.23
—
1.25
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 ATA | 12.9% | |
| LAZ 0-1 ATA | 10.5% | |
| LAZ 1-0 ATA | 10.3% | |
| LAZ 0-0 ATA | 8.4% | |
| LAZ 1-2 ATA | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).