LAZ vs BOL
Lazio (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 46.8% fair 2.14
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
BOL win 27.1% fair 3.68
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.49
—
1.05
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 BOL | 12.3% | |
| LAZ 1-0 BOL | 11.7% | |
| LAZ 2-1 BOL | 9.2% | |
| LAZ 2-0 BOL | 8.8% | |
| LAZ 0-1 BOL | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).