LAZ vs CAG
Lazio (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
LAZ win 47.7% fair 2.10
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
CAG win 26.2% fair 3.82
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.6% / 26.0% / 25.4%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.50
—
1.01
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 CAG | 12.3% | |
| LAZ 1-0 CAG | 12.2% | |
| LAZ 2-1 CAG | 9.2% | |
| LAZ 2-0 CAG | 9.2% | |
| LAZ 0-1 CAG | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).