LAZ vs CAG
Lazio (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 53.7% fair 1.86
Draw 25.0% fair 4.01
CAG win 21.4% fair 4.68
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.63
—
0.88
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-0 CAG | 13.3% | |
| LAZ 1-1 CAG | 11.7% | |
| LAZ 2-0 CAG | 10.8% | |
| LAZ 2-1 CAG | 9.5% | |
| LAZ 0-0 CAG | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).