LAZ vs COM
Lazio (home) vs Como · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 36.6% fair 2.73
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
COM win 37.2% fair 2.69
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.30
—
1.35
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 COM | 12.4% | |
| LAZ 0-1 COM | 9.5% | |
| LAZ 1-0 COM | 9.2% | |
| LAZ 1-2 COM | 8.4% | |
| LAZ 2-1 COM | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).