LAZ vs FIO
Lazio (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 59.4% fair 1.68
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
FIO win 18.8% fair 5.32
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.99
—
0.95
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-0 FIO | 10.5% | |
| LAZ 2-0 FIO | 10.5% | |
| LAZ 1-1 FIO | 10.0% | |
| LAZ 2-1 FIO | 9.9% | |
| LAZ 3-0 FIO | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).