LAZ vs FRO
Lazio (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 58.9% fair 1.70
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
FRO win 19.3% fair 5.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.9% / 20.8% / 17.3%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
2.02
—
0.97
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 2-0 FRO | 10.3% | |
| LAZ 1-0 FRO | 10.2% | |
| LAZ 2-1 FRO | 10.0% | |
| LAZ 1-1 FRO | 9.8% | |
| LAZ 3-0 FRO | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).