LAZ vs GEN
Lazio (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
LAZ win 48.8% fair 2.05
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
GEN win 25.3% fair 3.96
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.9% / 25.7% / 24.4%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.53
—
0.99
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-0 GEN | 12.4% | |
| LAZ 1-1 GEN | 12.2% | |
| LAZ 2-0 GEN | 9.5% | |
| LAZ 2-1 GEN | 9.3% | |
| LAZ 0-0 GEN | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).