LAZ vs INT
Lazio (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 28.3% fair 3.53
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
INT win 48.2% fair 2.07
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.27
—
1.80
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 INT | 10.6% | |
| LAZ 1-2 INT | 9.6% | |
| LAZ 0-1 INT | 8.4% | |
| LAZ 0-2 INT | 7.5% | |
| LAZ 2-1 INT | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).