LAZ vs JUV
Lazio (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 41.0% fair 2.44
Draw 26.3% fair 3.80
JUV win 32.8% fair 3.05
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.39
—
1.22
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 JUV | 12.5% | |
| LAZ 1-0 JUV | 10.2% | |
| LAZ 0-1 JUV | 9.0% | |
| LAZ 2-1 JUV | 8.7% | |
| LAZ 1-2 JUV | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).