LAZ vs LEC
Lazio (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
LAZ win 49.8% fair 2.01
Draw 26.7% fair 3.74
LEC win 23.5% fair 4.26
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.0% / 26.7% / 22.3%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.45
—
0.86
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-0 LEC | 14.4% | |
| LAZ 1-1 LEC | 12.4% | |
| LAZ 2-0 LEC | 10.4% | |
| LAZ 0-0 LEC | 9.9% | |
| LAZ 2-1 LEC | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).