LAZ vs LEC
Lazio (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 57.9% fair 1.73
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
LEC win 18.5% fair 5.42
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.75
—
0.81
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-0 LEC | 13.6% | |
| LAZ 2-0 LEC | 11.9% | |
| LAZ 1-1 LEC | 10.9% | |
| LAZ 2-1 LEC | 9.6% | |
| LAZ 0-0 LEC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).