LAZ vs MIL
Lazio (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
LAZ win 35.0% fair 2.86
Draw 27.1% fair 3.69
MIL win 37.9% fair 2.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.0% / 27.1% / 38.9%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.19
—
1.29
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 MIL | 12.9% | |
| LAZ 0-1 MIL | 10.8% | |
| LAZ 1-0 MIL | 10.0% | |
| LAZ 0-0 MIL | 8.4% | |
| LAZ 1-2 MIL | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).