LAZ vs MIL
Lazio (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-12 · FT 2-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LAZ win 40.3% fair 2.48
Draw 27.5% fair 3.64
MIL win 32.3% fair 3.10
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.28
—
1.12
MIL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LAZ ×1.100 (matched 11), MIL ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 MIL | 13.0% | |
| LAZ 1-0 MIL | 11.6% | |
| LAZ 0-1 MIL | 10.2% | |
| LAZ 0-0 MIL | 9.1% | |
| LAZ 2-1 MIL | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).