LAZ vs MON
Lazio (home) vs Monza · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
LAZ win 54.3% fair 1.84
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
MON win 21.5% fair 4.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.0% / 23.6% / 19.4%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.73
—
0.90
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-0 MON | 12.5% | |
| LAZ 1-1 MON | 11.2% | |
| LAZ 2-0 MON | 10.8% | |
| LAZ 2-1 MON | 9.7% | |
| LAZ 0-0 MON | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).