LAZ vs NAP
Lazio (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 39.2% fair 2.55
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
NAP win 34.7% fair 2.88
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.38
—
1.30
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 NAP | 12.3% | |
| LAZ 1-0 NAP | 9.5% | |
| LAZ 0-1 NAP | 8.9% | |
| LAZ 2-1 NAP | 8.5% | |
| LAZ 1-2 NAP | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).