LAZ vs PAR
Lazio (home) vs Parma · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
LAZ win 48.6% fair 2.06
Draw 27.7% fair 3.61
PAR win 23.7% fair 4.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.6% / 27.8% / 22.6%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.36
—
0.82
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | fair 2.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
| Both teams to score | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-0 PAR | 15.4% | |
| LAZ 1-1 PAR | 12.6% | |
| LAZ 0-0 PAR | 11.3% | |
| LAZ 2-0 PAR | 10.5% | |
| LAZ 0-1 PAR | 9.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).