LAZ vs PAR
Lazio (home) vs Parma · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.00
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LAZ win 59.8% fair 1.67
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
PAR win 16.9% fair 5.93
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.76
—
0.73
PAR
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LAZ ×1.095 (matched 10), PAR ×1.000 (matched 0). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-0 PAR | 14.6% | |
| LAZ 2-0 PAR | 12.8% | |
| LAZ 1-1 PAR | 10.6% | |
| LAZ 2-1 PAR | 9.4% | |
| LAZ 0-0 PAR | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).