LAZ vs ROM
Lazio (home) vs Roma · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
LAZ win 30.6% fair 3.27
Draw 26.5% fair 3.78
ROM win 42.9% fair 2.33
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.10
—
1.43
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 ROM | 12.5% | |
| LAZ 0-1 ROM | 11.4% | |
| LAZ 1-2 ROM | 9.0% | |
| LAZ 1-0 ROM | 8.8% | |
| LAZ 0-2 ROM | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).