LAZ vs ROM
Lazio (home) vs Roma · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 32.0% fair 3.12
Draw 26.1% fair 3.82
ROM win 41.8% fair 2.39
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.18
—
1.44
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 ROM | 12.4% | |
| LAZ 0-1 ROM | 10.5% | |
| LAZ 1-2 ROM | 8.9% | |
| LAZ 1-0 ROM | 8.6% | |
| LAZ 0-2 ROM | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).