LAZ vs SAS
Lazio (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 57.1% fair 1.75
Draw 21.7% fair 4.60
SAS win 21.2% fair 4.72
Expected Goals
LAZ
2.04
—
1.10
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.3% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 2-1 SAS | 9.9% | |
| LAZ 1-1 SAS | 9.7% | |
| LAZ 2-0 SAS | 9.0% | |
| LAZ 1-0 SAS | 8.8% | |
| LAZ 3-1 SAS | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).