LAZ vs UDI
Lazio (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 57.4% fair 1.74
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
UDI win 20.4% fair 4.91
Expected Goals
LAZ
1.95
—
1.01
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 1-1 UDI | 10.2% | |
| LAZ 1-0 UDI | 10.1% | |
| LAZ 2-1 UDI | 9.9% | |
| LAZ 2-0 UDI | 9.9% | |
| LAZ 3-1 UDI | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).