LAZ vs VEN
Lazio (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LAZ win 62.6% fair 1.60
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
VEN win 16.2% fair 6.17
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.2% / 20.2% / 13.6%.
Expected Goals
LAZ
2.02
—
0.79
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
Most Likely Scores
| LAZ 2-0 VEN | 12.3% | |
| LAZ 1-0 VEN | 12.2% | |
| LAZ 2-1 VEN | 9.7% | |
| LAZ 1-1 VEN | 9.6% | |
| LAZ 3-0 VEN | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LAZ goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).