LEC vs ATA
Lecce (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
LEC win 28.4% fair 3.52
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
ATA win 44.9% fair 2.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.3% / 26.6% / 47.1%.
Expected Goals
LEC
1.00
—
1.44
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 ATA | 12.5% | |
| LEC 0-1 ATA | 12.5% | |
| LEC 1-2 ATA | 9.0% | |
| LEC 0-2 ATA | 9.0% | |
| LEC 1-0 ATA | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).