LEC vs ATA
Lecce (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 28.3% fair 3.53
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
ATA win 46.6% fair 2.15
Expected Goals
LEC
1.12
—
1.60
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 ATA | 11.8% | |
| LEC 0-1 ATA | 10.6% | |
| LEC 1-2 ATA | 9.4% | |
| LEC 0-2 ATA | 8.4% | |
| LEC 1-0 ATA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).