LEC vs BOL
Lecce (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.91
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LEC win 30.3% fair 3.30
Draw 28.5% fair 3.50
BOL win 41.2% fair 2.43
Expected Goals
LEC
0.96
—
1.24
BOL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LEC ×0.900 (matched 10), BOL ×0.907 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.8% | fair 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 0-1 BOL | 13.7% | |
| LEC 1-1 BOL | 13.2% | |
| LEC 0-0 BOL | 11.1% | |
| LEC 1-0 BOL | 10.6% | |
| LEC 0-2 BOL | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).