LEC vs BOL
Lecce (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
LEC win 32.8% fair 3.05
Draw 27.2% fair 3.68
BOL win 40.1% fair 2.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.3% / 27.2% / 41.5%.
Expected Goals
LEC
1.11
—
1.33
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 BOL | 12.9% | |
| LEC 0-1 BOL | 11.6% | |
| LEC 1-0 BOL | 9.7% | |
| LEC 0-0 BOL | 8.7% | |
| LEC 1-2 BOL | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).