LEC vs CAG
Lecce (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 37.9% fair 2.64
Draw 27.4% fair 3.64
CAG win 34.6% fair 2.89
Expected Goals
LEC
1.24
—
1.19
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | fair 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 CAG | 13.0% | |
| LEC 1-0 CAG | 11.0% | |
| LEC 0-1 CAG | 10.5% | |
| LEC 0-0 CAG | 8.9% | |
| LEC 2-1 CAG | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).