LEC vs COM
Lecce (home) vs Como · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 21.8% fair 4.59
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
COM win 54.4% fair 1.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 19.0% / 23.4% / 57.6%.
Expected Goals
LEC
0.89
—
1.75
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 0-1 COM | 12.5% | |
| LEC 1-1 COM | 11.1% | |
| LEC 0-2 COM | 10.9% | |
| LEC 1-2 COM | 9.7% | |
| LEC 0-0 COM | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).