LEC vs FIO
Lecce (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 40.1% fair 2.49
Draw 26.4% fair 3.78
FIO win 33.4% fair 2.99
Expected Goals
LEC
1.36
—
1.23
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 FIO | 12.5% | |
| LEC 1-0 FIO | 10.2% | |
| LEC 0-1 FIO | 9.2% | |
| LEC 2-1 FIO | 8.5% | |
| LEC 1-2 FIO | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).