LEC vs FRO
Lecce (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 40.4% fair 2.48
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
FRO win 33.4% fair 2.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.1% / 26.1% / 33.8%.
Expected Goals
LEC
1.39
—
1.25
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 FRO | 12.4% | |
| LEC 1-0 FRO | 9.9% | |
| LEC 0-1 FRO | 9.0% | |
| LEC 2-1 FRO | 8.6% | |
| LEC 1-2 FRO | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).