LEC vs GEN
Lecce (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 39.4% fair 2.54
Draw 27.4% fair 3.65
GEN win 33.2% fair 3.01
Expected Goals
LEC
1.27
—
1.15
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | fair 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 GEN | 13.0% | |
| LEC 1-0 GEN | 11.3% | |
| LEC 0-1 GEN | 10.2% | |
| LEC 0-0 GEN | 8.9% | |
| LEC 2-1 GEN | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).