LEC vs GEN
Lecce (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
LEC win 39.4% fair 2.54
Draw 27.6% fair 3.62
GEN win 33.0% fair 3.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.0% / 27.7% / 33.3%.
Expected Goals
LEC
1.25
—
1.13
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 GEN | 13.1% | |
| LEC 1-0 GEN | 11.5% | |
| LEC 0-1 GEN | 10.4% | |
| LEC 0-0 GEN | 9.2% | |
| LEC 2-1 GEN | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).