LEC vs JUV
Lecce (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
LEC win 26.1% fair 3.82
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
JUV win 47.6% fair 2.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.8% / 26.1% / 50.1%.
Expected Goals
LEC
0.94
—
1.50
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 0-1 JUV | 13.1% | |
| LEC 1-1 JUV | 12.3% | |
| LEC 0-2 JUV | 9.8% | |
| LEC 1-2 JUV | 9.2% | |
| LEC 0-0 JUV | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).