LEC vs JUV
Lecce (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 0-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.07
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LEC win 22.5% fair 4.44
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
JUV win 52.9% fair 1.89
Expected Goals
LEC
0.90
—
1.67
JUV
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LEC ×0.900 (matched 11), JUV ×1.074 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 0-1 JUV | 12.9% | |
| LEC 1-1 JUV | 11.5% | |
| LEC 0-2 JUV | 10.7% | |
| LEC 1-2 JUV | 9.6% | |
| LEC 0-0 JUV | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).