LEC vs LAZ
Lecce (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 25.9% fair 3.86
Draw 25.7% fair 3.90
LAZ win 48.4% fair 2.07
Expected Goals
LEC
0.98
—
1.55
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 0-1 LAZ | 12.3% | |
| LEC 1-1 LAZ | 12.1% | |
| LEC 0-2 LAZ | 9.5% | |
| LEC 1-2 LAZ | 9.4% | |
| LEC 0-0 LAZ | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).