LEC vs MIL
Lecce (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 22.8% fair 4.38
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
MIL win 52.9% fair 1.89
Expected Goals
LEC
0.93
—
1.70
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 0-1 MIL | 12.3% | |
| LEC 1-1 MIL | 11.4% | |
| LEC 0-2 MIL | 10.4% | |
| LEC 1-2 MIL | 9.7% | |
| LEC 0-0 MIL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).