LEC vs MON
Lecce (home) vs Monza · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
LEC win 45.0% fair 2.22
Draw 26.8% fair 3.74
MON win 28.2% fair 3.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.7% / 26.7% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
LEC
1.42
—
1.04
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 MON | 12.6% | |
| LEC 1-0 MON | 12.2% | |
| LEC 2-1 MON | 8.9% | |
| LEC 0-1 MON | 8.9% | |
| LEC 2-0 MON | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).